As many as a billion people are at danger of Dengue fever with the increase of world temperature.
About a billion people could be newly exposed to disease-carrying mosquitoes towards the tail end of the century due to the increase of global warming. Reported a recent study that tracks the change in temperature globally on a monthly basis.
The news is not good especially for places that have even a slight climate that is convenient for mosquitos. The virus from these mosquitos is known for explosive disease outbreak when the show up at a place convenient for them.
The major challenge confronting global health is the issue of climate change; according to Global Change Geologist Colin J. Carlson, Ph.D., who is a Postdoctoral fellow in Georgetown University’s Biology department, and co-lead author of the recent study. Mosquitos are a major threat. After the Zika outbreak in 2015 in Brasil, there is a growing concern about what comes next.
The wide global disease expansion and redistribution of the mosquito-borne virus transmission risk with an increase in climate change; were published in the open access journal PLOS Neglected Tropical.
Sadie J .Ryan of the University of Florida and Carlson conducted a study on what the outcome will be if Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti, the disease-carrying mosquitos move with the global temperature change.
The World Health Organization have described Mosquitoes as one of the world’s deadliest animal with diseases that claim millions of lives every year. Diseases such as the dengue, chikungunya and the zika viruses can all be transmitted to humans through both of mosquitos – the Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Researchers have also linked a dozen other emerging diseases that will threaten human lives in the next 50 years to these mosquitoes.
According to the scientist, almost the entire world population will be at risk of these diseases in the next 50 years if global warming continues at this pace. The year-round transition is expected in the tropics and seasonal risk globally with increased temperature. Undoubtedly, there’s a greater risk of infection as scientist predicted.
These diseases have already been detected in Florida, a place with a suitable climate. Hence, it is no longer strictly tropical disease as humans carry both bugs and pathogens around the globe; Ryan, who is the associate professor of medical geography at Florida explains.
As Carlson said, the major problem is the risk of transmitting these diseases over the next few decades. Dengue disease will affect places like Europe, North America and other places despite their cold temperature that’s usually uncomfortable for Viruses.
With intense global warming, a greater population of people will be exposed to the deadly Aedes aegypti mosquito. But areas like west African and southeast Asia with worst climate condition will experience a reduction for the Aedes albopictus mosquito. This mosquito is the careers of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya Viruses.
A proper understanding of the risk geographically puts it on the check; says Ryan. A changing number does not necessarily give the answer, we must imagine what it will look like having a world too hot for the Aedes albopictus and the Aedes aegypti mosquitos.
Carlson describes it as bad news if we experience the worse timeline for climate change. Any region too warm to transmit dengue poses a serious threat even to other health sectors.
Monthly temperatures were studied by the team from 2050 to 2080 to project the risk. Although the type of mosquito that will migrate was not predicted, a climate supportive of the spread to an unpreventable degree was accounted.
50 years is quite a long time. Thus, both types of mosquito are expected to spread from region to region. But mostly the Aedes aegypti which spreads more in an urban environment; Carlson said.
This study according to Carlson is the only study that helps in the proper understanding of the future challenges. Also, he described it as a Herculean task ahead. Advance action needs to be taken by finding out pathogen to pathogen and region to region for a global health response in the case of disease outbreak.
Other study authors are Erin A. Mordecai of Stanford University and Leah R. Johnson of Virginia Polytechnic and State University.